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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 09-17-91 0130 HRS THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM IN THE 90'S By Clark Staten Chicago,IL. Strangely, the disintegration of the Soviet Bloc may have a detrimental affect on the future of the United States. That statement may seem contradictory on its face, but, it is also true. The uninitiated reader may ask, "How can the breakup of our greatest enemy [sic] be cause for fear"? The ironic answer to this question is as complex and bewildering as the nature of the threat. Put simply though, the loss of control by the Soviet Union, of it's surrogates in the Third World, could be cause for alarm. In fact, in recent years, the limited number of terrorist acts can probably be contribut- ed, at least in part, to the conservative influence of the Soviets. As the Soviets moved toward reform and peristroka, no longer suited their image to be seen as enthusiastic supporters of worldwide terrorism. During their internal struggle for autonomy and reform, experts within the intelligence community suggest that the Soviets may have discouraged or even forbidden some terrorist acts. Intercepted materials and radio transmissions would suggest that the Soviets actually withheld monetary and logistical support to terrorist factions during the Iraq/Kuwait war. At the same time, it was noted that they were attempting to resolve the conflict though negotiations. Today's turbulence in the Soviet Union has, in fact, fostered terrorism within their own country. This development was practically unheard of within recent years, largely due to the efficiency of the Soviet Secret Police (KGB). However, at least two recent skyjackings [sic] and multiple attacks on military garrisons throughout the Soviet Republics would suggest that the intelligence community within the Soviet Union is in disarray. This inability to monitor and control both internal and external dissidents and insurgent operatives demonstrates that they may not be able to control terrorist events as in the past. Therefore, the independance and reform in the Soviet Union has, in effect, unleashed their former substitutes and left them feeling abandoned and angry. Secondary in importance, and also heavy with irony, is the fact that the Allied Coalition victory [sic] in the Middle-East may also contributed to the future spector of terrorism. While it was clear that America and her allies won a clear military victory [sic] over Saddam Hussein and his minions, the effort surely did not limit the capability of Hussein or his allies to carry out Terrorist activities. In reality, our victory [sic] has left several factions of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and other splinter groups with even less to lose than before. The PLO's decision to side with Hussein during the Middle- East conflict, has severely damaged their credibility as peaceful negotiators for the Palestinian cause. The inverse is probably true. The valued opinions of several moderate Arab countries have seemingly decreased, for the PLO, with their support for the unprovoked [sic] attack on Kuwait. This further divergence with the Islamic and Arab community serves to isolate and harden the resolve of the "hard-core" revolutionary organizations that were previously somewhat moderated and controlled by the influence of money and sanctuary. Again, this situation contributes to the possibility that they will strike out in desperation and anger at not being able to fulfill their objectives. Thirdly, consideration must be given to the regime' of Saddam Hussein and his tremendous desire and propensity for revenge. During the Persian Gulf War, he was reported to have gathered any number of internationally known terrorists and provided them with money and weapons, in order to open the "third front of Terrorism". Fortunately, for the Allies, his command and control mechanisms were often so badly damaged that he was unable to mount a coordinated terror- ist campaign against the Kuwaiti supporters. Had Hussein been further able to threaten and exploit the fear of the popula- tions of the democracies and commit greater atrocities in Europe and the Americas, mhe [sic] hoped that political pressures would have been brought to bear against the Allies to quit the war effort even sooner. Hussein's revenge motive is undoubtedly a tangible factor to be considered for the future. Fourth, and most recently in the news, is the probablity of "Narco-Terrorism". As President Bush's war on drugs continues and continued pressure is put on the Mendellin Drug cartel and others, the chance of a terrorist attack against America or her leaders increases. The arrest and extradition to the United States, of several reputed "Drug Lords",(including General Manual Noriega), has reportedly caused threats to made against American leaders. Drug Enforce- ment Administration (DEA) and unnamed military officials have indicated that classified intelligence reports describe large sums of money being offered to kill drug enforcement personnel and even larger amounts to paid for the deaths of elected U.S. representatives. As greater U.S. resources and urgency are given to the problem, the greater the odds of retaliation by the drug dealers. The combination of these factors and the ready availability of several "Terror Masters", who find themselves unemployed and without a "homeland" should warn us that the likelihood of major insurgent attack grows by the day. Terrorist organizations live and grow by the publicity that they receive. Without a regular spectacular act of barbarism or the impression that they can project fear, they lose converts and financial support from those countries that are still engaged in the "revolutionary struggle". People and organizations like Abu Nidal, Abul Abbas, Al- Fatah, PFLP, Irish Republican Army, the Japanese Red Army Faction, Peru's "Shining Path", Columbian M-19 organization, Cuba & Castro, the Basque Separatists and a multitude of lessor known terrorist planners are currently looking for work. It is likely that Hussein, the Mendellin Cartel, Mohammar Qadaffi or some other disgruntled would-be despot will undoubtedly provide them with the arms and money to attack again. CONCLUSIONS Unfortunately, the eventuality of "soft" or "limited warfare" grows with the prospects for the larger peace between the superpowers. While we probably will not have to be so concerned with the possibility of a Global Thermonucle- ar War, the contingency of "brushfire" conflicts in the Middle-East, Central and South America, Turkey, Northern Ireland, Spain, India, Pakistan, The Phillipines, and even the United States are increased. The likelihood of the use of chemical or biological weapons also appears to have increased with the discovery of them in Iraq and other "revolutionary" countries. Confirmed reports go back to 1980 and a raid on a safe-house in France, where strains of Botulism and literature describing the use of biological weapons were found. In 1984, a Cuban defector described the presence on that island of stocks of toxic agents "for use against an invasion by America". The use by Iraq of chemical and biological weapons in it's long running war against Iran is almost common knowledge. Terrorists seem most attracted to the use of these weapons due to the the possible widespread affect of the toxins and the fear that they can breed. Finally, most terrorists know that the civilian populace has little defense against biological or chemical agents. The use of these weapons of horror will potentially take terrorism in the 90's to new heights of atrocity. American and Allied Intelligence and Anti-Terrorist organizations have done an outstanding job of preventing or thwarting insurgent operations within our borders, but the seemingly peaceful future of this decade may also be cause for alarm. America can not let down her vigilance or preparedness in light of the rapid changes in Eastern Europe or our victory in the Middle-East. In light of this situation, we need to be prepared to fight a different war.... "This is a new kind of war, new in it's intensity, ancient in it's origin...- war by guerillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of combat, by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by exhausting the enemy insted of engaging him". "It those situations where we encounter it...a new kind of stategy, a wholly different kind of force, and therefore, a new and wholly different kind of awareness and training." John F. Kennedy, President of the United States West Point, New York - June, 1962 Truer words were never spoken on the subject of terrorism. Not in 1962, nor today. America must be prepared for the challenges of terrorism in the coming decade. By Clark Staten, 1991 Emergency Response and Research Institute Author of "Emergency Response Guide to Terrorism", 3rd Ed. Manuscripts available on Emergency BBS - 312-631-3467


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