# I roll a 6 sided die 10 times and get: 4 5 2 1 2 6 3 2 6 2 The probability of getting this

I roll a 6 sided die 10 times and get: 4 5 2 1 2 6 3 2 6 2 The probability of getting this is is something like 6^10, or 60466176 to one against. pretty stunning, eh? Lets try it again. This time we get: 1 4 2 3 6 4 3 2 1 5 Hmm, well the probability of this one is 6^10, or 60466176 to one against. Wow. Pretty improbable. See what I mean? ANY outcome is very very improbably, but we still get one. But there is nothing that distinguishes one from annother particularly, unlike your ace-of-spades example. You are arguing as if "inteligent life" was some sort of criterion, but all you seem to mean is "hey, we can survive here, that's unlikely"; well you could say so, but so is anything else. To put it more formally, you can argue before the fact that it would be really improbably to get 1 4 2 3 6 4 3 2 1 5 (or this universe with this life), but once it has happened, the chance of it having happened is 1:1. The guy with the bomb was looking ahead: am I gonna go boom? Looks like it. You are looking behind: do I exist? Looks like it.

E-Mail Fredric L. Rice / The Skeptic Tank