I roll a 6 sided die 10 times and get: 4 5 2 1 2 6 3 2 6 2 The probability of getting this
I roll a 6 sided die 10 times and get:
4 5 2 1 2 6 3 2 6 2
The probability of getting this is is something like 6^10, or 60466176 to one
against.
pretty stunning, eh?
Lets try it again.
This time we get:
1 4 2 3 6 4 3 2 1 5
Hmm, well the probability of this one is 6^10, or 60466176 to one against.
Wow. Pretty improbable.
See what I mean? ANY outcome is very very improbably, but we still get one.
But there is nothing that distinguishes one from annother particularly,
unlike your aceofspades example. You are arguing as if "inteligent life"
was some sort of criterion, but all you seem to mean is "hey, we can survive
here, that's unlikely"; well you could say so, but so is anything else.
To put it more formally, you can argue before the fact that it would
be really improbably to get 1 4 2 3 6 4 3 2 1 5 (or this universe with
this life), but once it has happened, the chance of it having happened
is 1:1. The guy with the bomb was looking ahead: am I gonna go boom? Looks
like it. You are looking behind: do I exist? Looks like it.
EMail Fredric L. Rice / The Skeptic Tank
